Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
