A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
